Verizon closes the door on 3G in the USA, the last MNO to do so. Just how far behind is Africa?

Verizon has brought down the curtain on 3G tech in the USA. They announced their intentions back in 2019 and have been facing a number of delays but the final deadline was set on 31 December 2022. Verizon was also the last major carrier to still be offering 3G with AT&T and T-Mobile having winded things down in February and March 2022 respectively.

Verizon says that after this deadline, those still using 3G smartphones will only be able to make 911 calls and contact Verizon customer care. So as of January 2023, the USA is completely relying on 4G and 5G for its mobile connectivity.

The reasoning behind shutting down 2G and 3G

There are 2 major reasons why. One is technical and the other is our demands as consumers on the network. And this is what it looks like.

Technical reasons. It’s old tech

2G and 3G are based on what is called a circuit-switched network for voice. It’s a big intimidating term but all it describes is how the technology works when connecting calls. It relies on a discrete connection being made between all the parties that are part of a call. This is not very efficient on the network infrastructure and can result in a high rate of call drops whenever the volume of calls is abnormally high like on new year just after midnight. There is a limited number of these dedicated connections that the network can handle simultaneously.

In contrast, 4G and 5G are based on a packet-switched network which is far more intelligent in how it handles traffic. All it does is it makes sure it puts labels on all the traffic marking the source and the intended destination. This allows the traffic to take any route available to get where it needs to go and does not rely on the creation of a dedicated connection between the source and destination. This makes 4G and 5G more reliable than 2G and 3G.

It’s also a headache for networks to switch between circuit-switched traffic and packet-switched traffic and that is why if you receive a call in Zimbabwe, you cannot use your 4G data connection whilst on that call. It drops to 3G or even 2G. So since these 2 groups (2G, 3G & 4G, 5G) are using different tech behind the scenes, it’s easier to downgrade both parties to the same connection technology for the duration of the call.

There is also an issue of the spectrum. It’s a limited resource that we cannot create at will. And so this means we have to manage it as much as we can. Think of the spectrum as garage space. The size of the garage cannot change. But what we can do is throw out old, useless junk so we can make space for new, shiny, and useful stuff. The old useless stuff in this case is 2G and 3G and the shiny new useful stuff is 4G and 5G. So by decommissioning 2G and 3G, we free up more spectrum for us to develop and expand 4G and 5G.

Consumer reasons. We want more

Advancement in technology has resulted in handheld devices becoming increasingly powerful to a point where we have more processing power in our pockets than the computers on spaceships that landed men on the moon.

Connectivity has gone from being a convenience to it being a pivotal part of our existence. We demand connectivity for communication, entertainment, education, business, and leisure. More photos and videos need to be sent, more movies and series need to be streamed, more data backups to the cloud need to be performed, and because data is now the bulk of traffic on the network, it has become the dominant traffic on mobile networks.

In Q3 of 2021, a total of 78 exabytes of data was used on mobile networks with voice taking up 0.23 exabytes. So evidently mobile data is the dominant component of network traffic making it quite important to us users. Our demands for high-quality voice calls also have increased to a level that 2G and 3G cannot support. This led to the development of VoLTE (Which we somehow still do not have in Zimbabwe) and VoIP. Both these technologies make use of that packet-switched network technology we talked about earlier which opens up more potential for much better quality voice calls. 4G and 5G can inherently carry a lot more traffic than 2G and 3G thus enabling these enhanced experiences.

All internet-based services we are enjoying today are absolutely terrible on 3G and straight up don’t work on 2G. And since calls and SMS were the only services still keeping 2G and 3G relevant, they kept this technology in play. However, instant messaging and VoLTE are technologies that have been developed and are more competent and convenient replacements.

Sounds good! So why is Africa still keeping 2G and 3G alive?

The simple answer is eliminating 2G and 3G is very expensive and will break a lot of things if not done right. I’ll expand on that.

Only 17% of phones in Africa are 4G & 5G capable

As of 2021 4G accounted for 17% of all mobile phone connections in Sub-Saharan Africa with 5G accounting for 4%. So in total, only 21% of all smartphones in Sub-Saharan Africa are capable of connecting to 4G and 5G. A lot of smartphone users will have to upgrade to more modern smartphones for it to make sense. In some countries like South Africa, the process of decommissioning 2G and 3G is already underway however it will take some time for the rest of Africa to catch up.

Only 17.6% of the continent has 4G and 5G coverage

Besides the 4G and 5G compatible hardware problems, there is also the issue of coverage. Only 14.2% of Africa has 4G coverage and the 5G figure is even lower at 3.4%. These 2 connectivity technologies of the future are currently pushing a combined 17.6% of the total network coverage area in Africa. So a huge investment will need to be taken up by our mobile operators before we think of pulling the plug on 2G and 3G.

58% of Africa’s population is rural

Population density characteristics in Africa also play a role. 58% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa is rural and largely sparsely populated in very small clusters spread far and wide. This makes 2G and 3G the more economical technology to service rural areas because of the wide coverage area per base station that they offer vs 4G and 5G. In fact, 2G has the widest coverage area and this reduces all the way to 5G which has the smallest. So for applications of servicing a rural area that has a sparse population and doing it economically, 2G and 3G become the most desirable technologies…Until 4G setup costs drop significantly.

Most wireless systems running the economy are too old to support 4G & 5G

Certain critical economic systems are still running on hardware that only makes use of 2G and 3G. One such example is POS machine communication with the issuing banks. POS machines take up sim cards and they dial up a connection to the bank whenever you make a transaction using them. GSM-based security systems and other connected devices are again relying on 2G and 3G technology. The transition to a 4G and 5G network will result in a lot of hardware having to be overhauled and replaced with hardware that supports these technologies.

Smartphone manufacturers will seal our fate

The USA is one of the biggest smartphone markets in the world and also the most valuable. So with the USA saying goodbye to 2G and 3G, there will be some smartphones that will follow suit in the near future and just not include support for this technology. Just last year, all iPhone 14s sold in the USA were missing a Sim tray and exclusively use eSims. Such moves will gradually trickle down to other markets and it then becomes a scramble for mobile operators in that region to make their network compatible with these emerging smartphone technologies. If you imported your iPhone 14 from the USA then it will only work on Econet in Zimbabwe because right now they are the only mobile operator offering eSims.

Transsion, the parent company of Itel, Tecno, and Infinix currently commands a 42.7% market share in Africa and is in some way contributing to the mobile connectivity characteristics of the African population. Feature choices that such companies make will be what ends up driving the uptake of certain technologies by the masses and the rate at which 4G connections are climbing is in part attributed to the technology being accessible at a much more affordable price point. Most smartphone upgrades from feature phones are to either Itel, Tecno, or Infinix.

Brands like Nokia have also been hard at work making 4G-capable feature phones selling for around US$80. Yes, it is a bit expensive for a feature phone. You can get a non-4G capable one for US$20 from the same OEM. However, the point is that 4G is now available in a feature phone, a testament to these new technologies trickling down and making their way into much more attainable hardware.

2G and 3G are slowly going out of fashion so we will arrive at a future where 4G is the starting point for mobile connectivity. Just that in Africa things are going to happen much much slower.

Also read:

• Half of all smartphones sold in Africa are Transsion brands. How did itel, Tecno and Infinix’s parent get so dominant?
• Econet eSim: Everything you need to know
• EU forces Apple to switch to USB-C by September 2024