There is a movie called Rat Race in which some gambling addicts get their fix betting on the craziest things, including instructing the pilot to simulate turbulence so they could see who would throw up first. I believe Zimbabweans are fast getting there.
It’s not just Zimbabweans, betting houses have been killing it all over the world and sports betting popularity is through the roof. Even pay-TV giant Multichoice has its toes in the pool with SuperSpotBet.
I knew that much but I’m still to pick my jaw off the floor after I was put on to a gambling game called Aviator. It’s been around for a minute but I was unaware of its presence and I’m shocked this thing exists and is somewhat popular.
Aviator
In Aviator players bet on the outcome of a virtual plane taking off. The plane gradually ascends and the multiplier increases with it. The player’s goal is to cash out their bet before the plane flies away. The longer the plane flies, the higher the potential winnings, but the risk of losing the bet also increases.
There is no skill involved, there is no amount of research that can increase, however slightly, your chances of winning. You just place your bet and hazard a guess that the plane will take off after a certain amount of time.
The plane could fly away after just a second or it could take minutes. There is no telling. I would admit that the probability that it would fly away after just a second 5 times in a row is very slim and so the odds of winning at this game are better than playing the lotto. But still…
Gambling vs trading
Let’s put the ridiculous Aviator to the side and consider sports betting and we find that it’s not that different from trading in forex or stocks. I do believe serial sports betters could translate their skills to investment and succeed. Hear me out.
To improve your chances of winning as a sports better, you have to invest time in keeping up with team news; who is injured, how many days of rest have they had, who has historically taken the matchup, who has a more important game after the upcoming one, who is going to referee? – and so on.
Knowing that Lionel Messi won’t be playing changes everything when you’re looking to bet on his Inter Miami team.
This is similar to what an investor keeps up with; which sector is set to thrive, which CEO is on the chopping block, which company is affected by new regulations, what global trade wars are brewing, which companies are merging? – and so on.
Knowing that the US-China trade war is escalating changes the outlook on Apple for which China is a major market and manufacturing hub.
There would be a learning curve for sports betters transitioning to investment but I think we can agree that they would not be starting from scratch. They already have some of the skills required to succeed.
The luck factor
In the end, in both cases, all the research in the world still needs to be supplemented with luck. We can agree that Real Madrid is the clear favourite to win against Dortmund in the Champions League final but that probability is not 100%. They could lose.
Just a few years ago Tesla looked set to totally dominate but a few challenges later, including electric vehicle sales not growing as was expected and hundreds of billions have been shed in market cap by Elon Musk’s company.
What looked set in stone now looks shaky. Just like how Barcelona started the season strong but ended it with nothing to show.
Trading is not gambling
When we first talked about VCG being registered in Zimbabwe and how they offer Contracts for Difference, some felt this was E-creator all over again. This is not the case.
VCG and other brokers that offer leveraged trading do not guarantee profits of any kind. They merely provide a platform for you to invest, however wisely or foolishly you want. You could become a literal billionaire from this like Warren Buffet or you could lose it all.
If you put in the work, you can increase your chances of success but the chances of losing it all are never zero.
Gambling on Aviator and sports betting to a large extent is a game of chance and luck whilst trading requires knowledge, analysis, and skill.
So here I am hoping with the registration of VCG and I imagine some other competitors in the future, Zimbos will move from sports betting to trading.
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12 comments
Nice article – presents your case well enough. Not that I necessarily agree with it all, but it’s an interesting perspective.
I esp like the caveat ‘Trading is not Gambling’ – It was very important to have it there cos for a moment (to my horror) it seemed like that’s what the article was suggesting!
Yep, that was needed. I wanted to show how trading is a bit similar to sports betting. Since in both cases you have to research and keep up with some news, why not move to trading from sports betting. That way you reduce the impact of luck on your outcomes.
Talking to some gamblers, I realized they saw trading/investing as inaccessible and so the article was trying to show that there are some gambling ‘skills’ that translate well.
Thank yu bro
Interesting argument but I don’t necessarily agree with how simplistic it may be interpreted as. Financial markets are regulated and have institutional and national/international support structures that make them viable. There are significant barriers to entry like transaction cost and brokerage fees. The betting market is the wild west.
Granted you make some interesting points but playing the market using financial instruments like CODs, stocks, ETF etc requires very sober thinking and some level of tactics or strategy that is uncommon to the usual betting cycle. I’m not saying it’s inaccessible to the layman but it’s apples and oranges imo.
I also hope people read and do their due diligence before putting their hard earned money in any investment. Better yet seek financial advice from a reputable expert.
That is 100% correct, trading is not gambling, but most of the time if you dnt have the skills and mental grit you can easily easily become a gambler.
If you’re shifting from betting to trading, you need to completely get rid of the gambling perspective and give your self time to learn the market and as well as the phycological of the market and your own state of mind.
Knowledge is power!
Hosea 4:6
it’s tricky. but read financial statements and score lines are different. as you said it’s definitely gambling in both ends. the risk is too high at the end of the day. please please don’t use your salary
I think you are right in the sense that there are similarities between sports betting and trading mainly because both have risk to reward aspect, but however I think its easier for a forex trader to become a sports better than the other way round. forex trading is not easy there is just too much involved not to mention the mindset you need to be a trader
Starlink gets license to operate in Zim
Gambling is the worst, fortunately I have norhing but time on my hands to learn the marketplace. Watch a trader in the making 😜
Nice article – presents your case well enough. Not that I necessarily agree with it all, but it’s an interesting perspective.
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