The World Bank estimates that power shortages cost Zimbabwe 6.1% of GDP per year. The same bank says GDP was US$26.54 billion in 2023 and so we can put a figure to how much these power shortages are costing us.
We are losing US$1.6 billion a year because of constant power shortages that ZESA seems incapable of solving. Mthuli Nucube says that we should expect a substantial growth in electricity generation but significant power shortages should persist until 2030.
That means if we assume our GDP won’t increase until 2030, we will lose close to US$10 because of power shortages. With that in mind, does it make sense to only allocate less than US$9 million to the Ministry of Energy to solve this problem as Mthuli did? I don’t know.
Anyway, we have talked about some of the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) that are working on projects that should help alleviate the problem:
- Zim could meet 50% of electricity demand using solar by 2025, says govt. From which projects?
- More companies apply to generate/ procure electricity. ZESA monopoly over?
We would love to see those projects succeed but we also want to see ZESA itself get its act together. These small IPPs will help but ZESA has the capacity to make a huge difference quickly as Hwange’s Units 7 and 8 showed us.
The Hwange Units 7 and 8 Expansion Project added 600MW of capacity and as bad as it is today, one shudders to think where we would be if those units were not live.
The government seems to be doubling down on this. The green army be damned, Zimbabwe is sinking its teeth into coal power.
Upgrade of older Hwange units begins
We have talked about Units 7 and 8 so many times that some were not sure if Units 1 to 6 existed. They exist and they are so old and unreliable that it’s as good as we don’t have any.
We have finally decided to do something about those troublesome Units. Hwange Thermal Power Station is set for an upgrade.
India’s Jindal Steel and Power Company is set to upgrade and modernize the six units. The project aims to boost the those units’ capacity from 300 MW to over 800 MW and extend their lifespan by 15 to 20 years, enhancing the daily output to nearly 1,500 MW. It becomes 1500MW when we factor in Units 7 and 8’s 600MW.
The project will replace outdated turbines, generators, and other components with modern technologies. It will also include introducing advanced control systems which should help improve efficiency.
The projected timeline:
Preparation Phase (Current – Q4 2024):
- Jindal Steel and Power Company finalizes assessments of the scope of work.
- Contract signing expected before the end of 2024.
Project Start (Q1 2025):
- Modernization of units begins.
- Work on the first unit commences, focusing on replacing turbines, generators, and upgrading control systems.
Unit 5 Refurbishment (Ongoing – August 2025):
- Unit 5 already under refurbishment using internal resources and local financing.
- Scheduled completion: August 2025.
Implementation Timeline (36-48 Months from Q1 2025):
- Modernization of remaining units proceeds in phases.
- Work on each unit is staggered to maintain some level of power generation during refurbishment.
Expected Completion (2028 – 2029):
- Full project completion anticipated within 3 to 4 years of commencement.
- Output increased from 300 MW to over 800 MW, with a daily target of 1,500 MW across all units.
Post-Completion Enhancements:
- Optimized operations and improved efficiency with advanced control systems.
- Extended lifespan of units by 15-20 years.
This would be even bigger than the numbers suggest. On paper, it sounds like we’re only talking about a 500MW increase in capacity for Units 1 to 6. The 500MW is huge but we would be getting more than that.
Units 1 to 6 are so unreliable that today we don’t get anything close to the 300MW capacity they have. The Sunday Mail quoted a senior ZESA official saying:
The units are old and they can no longer produce 300MW from an installed capacity of 920MW. They are no longer functioning at optimum capacity.
So, if this upgrade leads to them being reliable we would getting nigh on 800MW because we weren’t getting the 300MW reliably. So, this is a big deal.
The relative success of the Hwange Expansion Project which gave us Units 7 and 8 has me excited for this upgrade. I hope this time around we are able to meet deadlines unlike it was was with Units 7 and 8 which were completed years late.
Green energy?
We are going to get some push back for committing to coal like this but Zimbos, pay no mind to the critics on this one. Would it have been great if we could lean on green energy sources? – Of course, but we don’t have the luxury at the moment.
We have a crumbling economy losing billions a year to power shortages. Let’s stop the bleeding and then consider green energy going forward, you know, once we’re on our feet. It’s not like those who would condemn us for going down the coal route are lining up to solve our power challenges.
We relied on green Kariba hydro power for years but changes in rain patterns up north have crippled the power station. So, I guess you could say that it’s ironic that we are addressing the consequences of climate change (reduced hydro output) by utilizing a method (coal power) that further intensifies the root cause.
It has to be this way, unfortunately. I agree with those that say our immediate energy need outweighs long-term environmental concerns.
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